Report Title: The BP Energy Outlook 2030
Publisher: BP Global
Report Summary:
World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030.
BP’s ‘base case’ – or most likely projection – points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% over the next twenty years, with 93% of the growth coming from non-OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections
According to the BP Energy Outlook, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In launching the BP Energy Outlook 2030, Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: “The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
“What producers, governments and consumers all want is secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way – without inhibiting economic development or jeopardising the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide.”
“I need to emphasize that the BP Energy Outlook 2030 base case is a projection, not a proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence. For example, we are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions. But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress. As you probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for more action from governments, including the wide application of a carbon price. Our base case assumes that countries continue to make some progress on addressing climate change, based on the current and expected level of political commitment. But overall, for me personally, it is a wake-up call.”